The Numbers Game By Rev. C. G. Larson"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." This statement, made famous by Mark Twain, describes the persuasive power of numbers and how truthful statistics can be utilized to support inaccurate claims. Will we see such inaccurate claims by the ELCA later into the year as numbers relating to the congregational reports for the year ending December 31,2009 are released?
Each year ELCA pastors are required to submit congregational reports. It is not uncommon for the annual report to have something new each year, usually questions relevant to ministry on Form C. In the past, on Form A, pastors were required to report the number of baptized and confirmed members, worship attendance, the number of people of color who are confirmed or baptized members, the congregational financial assets and a basic disbursements with emphases on benevolences. The annual congregational report of 2009, Form A, had a very interesting change. For the first time in the area reserved for members, pastors where asked the following: “Total number of people (including children) actively participating in the life of the congregation in 2009”. This data is identified as “line 7”. Now, the next line in the form requires the reporting of “race/ethnic origin of ACTIVE PARTICIPANTS. Must equal active participants on line 7”. Could this data be used to portray a less than genuine picture of the ELCA? What exactly does “actively participating in the life of the congregation” mean? Had this question been asked five years ago, maybe less could be read into this, however, given the occurrence of this question at the close of the same year of the controversial CWA09 decisions leads one to pause. |
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Here is a realistic example how this figure may add to the confusion of the numbers game within the ELCA: A certain congregation in southern Minnesota generously permits their property to be used by the Head Start program. Should the congregational report include these Head Start participants in the life of the congregation? One could make a rational argument to do so. This then would be included in the ethnic make-up of the congregation. Is it possible that this can paint the image that the ELCA is more ethnically diverse when in reality it isn’t? It sure could for this congregation. However, few if any of the Head Start children or families participate in the worship life of the congregation. Is that relevant when reporting numbers?
The reality is thousands have left the ELCA in 2009 and the first half of 2010. Higgins Road voluntarily reports the number of congregations that have left since August and paint the optimistic picture that less than 2 percent of the total ELCA congregations have left. But if these congregation numbers are converted into members suddenly these number should become alarming. According to Abiding Word Ministries, who is tracking the count of known congregations that have voted to leave the ELCA, since August 2009 reports that the ELCA will have lost over 200,000 members. This loss is expected to continue throughout the summer and beyond. Over 300 congregations have successfully taken one or both of their two required votes to withdraw from the ELCA.
Will “line 7” be used to paint a more optimistic picture on the state of the ELCA post CWA09?
NOTE: The author chose not to participate in the 09 report to express his disappointment in the ELCA.
The reality is thousands have left the ELCA in 2009 and the first half of 2010. Higgins Road voluntarily reports the number of congregations that have left since August and paint the optimistic picture that less than 2 percent of the total ELCA congregations have left. But if these congregation numbers are converted into members suddenly these number should become alarming. According to Abiding Word Ministries, who is tracking the count of known congregations that have voted to leave the ELCA, since August 2009 reports that the ELCA will have lost over 200,000 members. This loss is expected to continue throughout the summer and beyond. Over 300 congregations have successfully taken one or both of their two required votes to withdraw from the ELCA.
Will “line 7” be used to paint a more optimistic picture on the state of the ELCA post CWA09?
NOTE: The author chose not to participate in the 09 report to express his disappointment in the ELCA.